Simulating Market Transformation Dynamics Using a Hybrid Energy Economy Model: a Look at the Adoption of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Policymakers committed to inducing technological change need information about the Likely effects of alternative policies, potential adoption rates of clean technologies, and costs to society in the long run. My goal was to use a "hybrid energy economy model (CIMS), which combines a degree of behavioural realism, technological explicitness, and economy-wide feedback capabilities, to develop policy-relevant information about dynamics in consumer preferences for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) . I designed a survey to investigate whether people's valuations of HFCVs change with increased market penetration (the "neighbour effect"). I used the survey results to build discrete choice models, which showed capital cost and refuelling convenience as key influences on consumers' choices and the importance of stated attitudes towards new technologies. However, I found no evidence of the neighbour effect. Rather than rule out this factor in consumer decisions regarding HFCVs, I attribute the result to limitations of the experimental design.